Rates: what the ECB watches before it decides

Every European Central Bank decision sets off the same round of fortune-telling. Yet the framework is public, and it fits on four dials.

Inflation first, and above all core inflation, excluding energy and food, which says more about the trend. Wages next, because they feed services inflation. Growth, which tells you whether the economy can bear high rates. Credit conditions last: if banks are lending less, monetary policy is already doing its work.

Why it matters: for investors, the decision itself often counts for less than the tone of the statement and the press conference. That is where the next move can be read.